Thursday, January 11, 2024

Does China copy Singapore's model that the government plays a significant role in the economy?

Is the Singapore government the first ever government to be actively involved in its own economy? No doubt there is active participation of the Chinese Government in their economy but to say that the Chinese government copied the Singaporean government methodologies is not accurate at all.

The Chinese economy has always been state-driven. There was never a point in time when the government didn't have its hands pushing the economic undercurrent.

There are similar state-owned companies participating actively in the Chinese economy just like Singapore. But Singapore was not the first country to do this. U.S.A., UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, France, Austria, Germany, Belgium, and many other countries have done similar things even way longer than Singapore. In fact, Singapore itself was born as a result of this form of economic participation by a British joint-stock-owned company called East India Company and to some extent the Dutch East India Company.

To assume that the Chinese "copied" the Singapore economic model exclusively is an almost entirely false notion. I have no doubt that Singapore is one of the countries studied by the Chinese economic strategists but it is not that critically important nor does the methods of the Singaporean government unique or groundbreaking.

China was already one of the most advanced economies in the early 19th century. Most industries in China at the time were state-owned. Deng Xiaoping was known as a reformist even before he took over the Chinese leadership. People already expected he was going to change a lot of things when he took over.

I'm not convinced that Singapore was a stronger influence on the economic reform than Hong Kong was. Hong Kong was similar to Singapore in many aspects. Both were British outposts in the east. Both were openly trading nations. Both followed a similar economic model. However, In 1978, Hong Kong had a larger economy and was much more closer to China than Singapore. It can be argued that Hong Kong played a more significant role in the Chinese economic reform than Singapore.

Updated

The Chinese economy before the reform was much more complex than what we think. Although it can be largely characterized by government monopoly in important industries, the rest of the economic aspects especially the good and service sectors were pretty much driven by private enterprises. Trade between China and the rest of the world was never absent. International trade during the isolation period was actually booming, hence the new wave of development of Chinese settlements and trade links across South East Asia including Penang and Singapore.

What we described as the closed economy period of China is the absence of widespread foreign involvement in the Chinese economy due to the tight control by a government that was suspicious of the West colonization attempts to mask trade around the world at the time.

Surrounded by the prospects of being conquered, China developed a paranoia that eventually gave rise to radical ideas that ended up as a colossal failure that was choking it's own people.

The primary reason for the changes in economic approach was simply because the economic views of the old guards were simply not working.

The motivation for the change was not because they were inspired by any single country but because they realized that there was no other way to do it except relaxing the foreign participation control allowing liberalization of some of the important sectors and setting up government-owned companies to create jobs and explore new markets where the entry barrier is high.

These are not groundbreaking ideas. These things don't require special inspiration and definitely were not something they didn't already know. They didn't have to wait for Singapore to teach them.

The push for changes did not start with the meeting between the two premiers. The pressure for reform was already too strong even long before they made each other acquaintances. In fact, that was what propelled Deng into the position of power.

What took Deng a long time to accelerate the reform was political resistance. The climate was just right in the 1970s when communism around the world was crumbling and this made it possible for economic reform embracing certain aspects of capitalism to take place. 

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