NO. I have read those naysayers for 30 years. Notably Navarro and Gordon.
For the CHINA TRAIN, there remains a long rail ahead.
In physics there is Law of Momentum. In psychology, there is strength in Self Belief of being Chinese. In sociology, there is power in Unity. In politics, there is CCP. In philosophy there is STABILITY. In religion, there is a CHINA DREAM.
In Economics, CHINA has a high speed train fueled by strong government (DRIVER), stable society (CARRIAGES), industrious people (ENGINE) with strong character, and a CHINA DREAM (DESTINATION), CHINA is like a speeding TRAIN at 600 to 700 kph (US train runs 200 to 300 kph, EU 200 kph). It may slow at curves, but it can really go.
Even if mighty USA goes on a ten year Xmas holiday, CHINA will still grow.
CHINA sees long term, Beijing plans strategically without challenge. The security and stability is solid. The people are stoic and confident, industrious, and too proud to ask for food coupons.
(May read my write on why slow growth will not be troubling the CCP).
The more noise the US and media makes, the more obvious they are real worried of the challenge of a rising China.
The IMF/WB says the bulk of world’s growth is attributed to CHINA. China stopped the world from collapsing in 2008 (the West was so grateful but forgets quickly). At the last Economic forum, 92% of world’s leaders said CHINA is the most influential in world economics.
CHINA Train is HUGE. Many challenges ahead, but it has many carriages (cards) that many countries don’t have- MIC 2025; the One Belt with 158 signing up; AIIB with 100; FOCAC with 56 African nations; the RCEP which is the biggest trading bloc in the world, and also the largest foreign reserves 72x USA’s. Powerful, yet still developing with 40% still rural, huge millions yet in low developing state, which means enormous domestic space to grow within China.
The Rail ahead remains very long, sometimes arduous and often winding. But the destination is a glorious one and the build quality is good.
It bears a stamp:
“MADE by CHINA”
Designed by CCP for the people, for the country, for the world.
And
What does Yale’s Economist Stephen Roach said?
Well, China has just started. And if you look at crystal ball, then what would China look like? By 2014, China has surpassed US on PPP terms, and maybe exceed US in nominal terms by 2035 plus and minus a few.
And this is what China is looking like with 60% of the world’s new tall buildings all in China.
For sure, I know, China doesn’t want to stop, neither does this huge guy. And though he can control China, what is important is actually the continued co-dependency and enriching partnership with the current big guy - USA, without one turning on the other.
WHAT we see now is it one partner in relative decline feeling scorned and lashing out at the other? Or will they eventually make up? Well, I don’t know, but I have a hunch like Roach that the China train will not be unsettled.
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