Sunday, December 15, 2024

How will Iran's relationship with Syria change with Bashar al-Assad's ouster?

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The only thing that makes a man like Assad interesting for both Iran and Russia is that Assad was, fundamentally, a weak man. Like a cockroach, he was always on survival-mode. If he needed to debase himself and humiliate himself to stay in power, he’d do it in a heartbeat…

Any access Iran, or Russia, wanted? Assad signed off on it. The chinless demon allowed them to move in and out, freely, to arm Hezbollah through Syria, to supply Russia’s armies in Africa through its Latakia base…

The concept of “national sovereignty” or “territorial integrity” means very little to a man who can be bribed, and who is desperate to cling to power by any means necessary. Thus, any demands made by his foreign backers were approved. Always.

Now, there is a new sheriff in town, and he’s an actual Syrian. The people of Syria remember several things quite well — first of all, they remember the goons of Assad who tortured their own people for decades. Next, they remember the Iranian and Russian troops who made it possible. Who helped bomb and torture them into submission. Why would Syria ever side with the people who enabled their dictator to kill them, ever again?

Iran was given carte blanche, as was Russia, to operate in Syria with impunity. Now Iran and Russia are seen for what they truly are — foreign interlopers, meddling in Syria’s affairs and keeping a brutal regime in power no matter the human cost, because it benefitted them geopolitically. The new Syria will not be too friendly to these powers who propped up Assad.

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