Sunday, December 31, 2023

Among Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam, which country will be the 1 trillion economy the soonest? Why?

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Ideally, I think it will be the Philippines.

Nations rise and fall. It is difficult to predict what happen in the next ten years because a lot of things can happen. The best way is to pick the most fastest one among the years to come. Philippines is doing well, but the stability can be an obstacle for them to achieve the target fast enough.

For me, I suspect Thailand and Malaysia are starting to look they are running out of steam. This can be due to the lower number of population (less room for market growth) and higher labor cost (less attractive for foreign investors that want to establish manufacturing plants). Thailand is still in the same position today as they were back in 2012, so is Malaysia.

Philippines on the other hand has grown very well. They run fast, but learning from their past, this country is riddled with uncertainties and often randomly stagnating. As long as Philippines can keep themselves stable, they will be the second nation, after Indonesia to reach 1 trillion dollar economy.

Vietnam is better bet if you want stability. And judging at how they plan their industries and economy recently, I believe they are just getting started and will be getting faster and faster in the coming years. I think Vietnam will be the fastest growing economy in ASEAN for the next decade (2020–2030). However, remember that Vietnam started far behind the three other countries in this case and other countries might have reached 1 trillion earlier than them.

My pick is the Philippines.

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