Thursday, April 18, 2024

What countries in Southeast Asia will have more potential in the next 5 years?


No one can exactly predict who’s going to be successful in the future. All Southeast Asian countries I believe have potentials to be successful.

Who said before that United States of America, a colonized country by England (majority) and Spain (minority), who were built by rebels of the English King, would be a very powerful and influential nation in less than a century?

Who said England would be a dominant and powerful country in just 70 years because of their greatest Queen Elizabeth I and her peoples loyalty? Who said it would be the biggest and most powerful Empire during 1700s & 1800s if it was just a pawn or a very poor country 200 years ago?

Who said Singapore would be a very developed country in just a span of a few decades from being a developing/third world country full of drug issues? Who said it would be one of the safest countries today last 70 years or so when the drug crimes were still prevalent? Singapore became the richest country in South East Asia during late 60s or early 70s and it is still today. Some people back in the past said that Singapore would be a failed state because it’s just a city without natural resources. They asked, how could it survive without Malaysia, which has plenty of natural resources? Get back to these people who said these criticisms. Tell them you are a very proud Singaporean. These critics will eventually realize they were wrong.

Philippines was the richest country in South East Asia and second to Japan in Asia in the last 70 years or so. It was admired by South Koreans during the Philippines glorious days when South Korea was still undeveloped/developing. Its capital was termed as the “Paris of Asia” because of its European beauty. Manila was one of the most destroyed cities during World War II but it happened to recover in just a decade. It was governed by the Americans and Spanish before the natives. It almost had the firsts, from having the first Airline, first metro system, etc. Now it is free and independent, being governed by its own people. Where is it now? How do you judge this country today? Third world? Many Beggars? Street Children? Dirty? Over-populated? Brain Drain? Undisciplined? Mismanaged? What else offending generalizations/stereotypes do you have about this country?

Everything has its potentials as long as you see that it keeps moving on and does not stop/quit. Everything has the potential to succeed as long as you see it is growing, no matter how fast or slow it is. Everything has the potential to fail/fall as long as you witness its degradation, mismanagement, and treacheries.

South East Asia has 10 members (East Timor is still not recognized by most SEA countries). I’ll just state my own positive personal opinion about their potentials to be successful. I might sound biased about my own country but it’s not because of my pride but because, I’m just of course, very supportive of my own country, just like how you would be for your own country. But rest assured that this will not be offensive and my opinions will be based from facts as much as possible together with my personal observations and predictions which are very subjective.

POTENTIALS:

I will use these five major metrics: GDP per Capita (the average income of the country’s population), Total GDP (the total savings or money of the country), Infrastructure/Global Competitiveness Index (convenience & efficiency of the country), HDI (Human Development Index, it mostly talks about the peoples comfort, literacy, and life-expectancy instead of financial stuff), and GDP growth (very self explanatory). The rest of the metrics, if you are interested, can be found on google.

  1. Singapore - it is very stable even today, still growing but of course not too much since it’s already at the top (I’m talking about GDP per capita). If you are already at the highest, you cannot go too much higher. BUT, that’s as of today. Tomorrow’s preferences might change and of course we need to adapt to the changes in order to keep our good status. I believe, Singapore is a very competitive country, so in my opinion, there are no chances for them to be left behind but still continue with its progressive stability. I can only make my own predictions which are very subjective. I’m not even an economist or a government personnel, but as a South East Asian person, for me, as long as it is stable or continuously growing, it will keep its status as a progressive country in South East Asia. It still has the potential to keep its tract. Since it is already progressive, it should not be difficult for her to adjust in every changes that can happen in the near future. Improvements for them will be easier since there are just a few to improve and in reality, we do not face drastic trend/standard changes not unless we face another world war.
    Expectations - I’ll not put anymore since Singapore is already developed.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 6th in ASEAN, 38th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 1st in ASEAN, 3rd in the World
    HDI - Very High, 9th in the World
    Infrastructure - 1st in ASEAN, 3rd in the World
    GDP growth - 9th in ASEAN at 3.6%
  2. Malaysia - it is stable today, still growing averagely. It’s still not at the top so it still has way to get to the top. Malaysia is still developing but not to the point of being categorized as a “mismanaged or low middle classed” country. Since it is still not at the top, it is still developing. Malaysia is very Upper Middle Classed (again, I’m talking about GDP per Capita), but since it has a moderate population, it has lower total GDP or smaller economy compared to Thailand, Indonesia and almost the same as Philippines. In my opinion, it can reach developed status within a few decades (at least in GDP per capita, Infrastructure, and HDI perspective). If she is willing to increase her population for bigger economy, that could be better but not necessary since bigger population means shakier management. It has potentials to have bigger population and economy because of increasing immigrants. Anyways, Malaysia has big Economy even though not at the very top list. She just needs a few more developments to reach the top. It should not be difficult for her to reach the top in the near future because she is already approaching it. Good job Malaysia!
    Expectations - A hybrid of Singapore and Brunei with more natural resources and tourist attractions. If they can reach a growth rate of at least 7%, they can reach developed status by around late 2020s or early 2030s. If not, it will take them a bit more years or decades.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 3rd in ASEAN, 26th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 3rd in ASEAN, 46th in the World
    HDI - Very High, 57th in the World
    Infrastructure - 2nd in ASEAN, 25th in the World
    GDP growth - 6th in ASEAN at 5.9%
  3. Brunei - it is stable today. I don’t know much about Brunei since this is a very quiet country. It has very big GDP per capita which means most of its population are doing well, however, since it has a very few population, it also has a very small economy. Just like Singapore, it has the potentials to keep its tract for GDP per Capita and HDI. I don’t see Brunei’s potential to increase its population. I think Brunei is currently contented with its very few population. Population plays a major role in building an economy. Total GDP does not necessarily need to be big, but of course the bigger your economy is, the more you will be recognized internationally because economy brings power (just look at China). Infrastructure needs improvement. I believe, there is still no present rail transportation in Brunei as of the moment (correct me if I’m wrong).
    Expectations - I think Brunei will stay as it is and will continue maintaining its economy.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 10th in ASEAN, 124th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 2nd in ASEAN, 4th in the World
    HDI - Very High, 39th in the World
    Infrastructure - 7th in ASEAN, 58th in the World
    GDP growth - 10th in ASEAN at 1.3%
  4. Thailand - it is a middle classed country today. It is stable in its middle classed status but to be developed, it still has a long way to go. It has the second biggest economy in South East Asia (Total GDP) after Indonesia. It’s GDP per capita is middle classed. HDI is high. Infrastructure is good (top 3 in ASEAN). It’s tourism industry is its richest trait. If Thailand is contended of being a middle classed country, there is nothing wrong with it. However, if it wants to develop more (who among us doesn’t want to anyways?), it has big potentials. Just like Malaysia, it still has way to go, not very far, but not very near as well. In a few decades, I believe, it can also be developed if the growth is continued, especially if it’s fast.
    Expectations - It had potentials to turn like South Korea a few years back however, their growth rate has slowed down, it seemed like they became too complacent. I suppose, they need to rebut again. They were successful in establishing their tourism industry, but they have to improve the other industries as well. If they reach at least 7% growth rate and maintain it, they can reach developed status as early as late 2030s. Otherwise, it will take a bit more decades to reach that goal. Their growth rate shall not be lower than 2%, or else they might possibly get surpassed by other lower middle classed countries.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 2nd in ASEAN, 20th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 4th in ASEAN, 71st in the World
    HDI - High, 83rd in the World
    Infrastructure - 3rd in ASEAN, 34th in the World
    GDP growth - 8th in ASEAN at 3.9%
  5. Indonesia - it is a middle classed country today. It has very high potential since it recently graduated from being a lower middle classed country last few years. It has the biggest economy in South East Asia mostly because of its very big population. Its manufacturing industry is its richest trait. It still has a long way to go but she’s getting nearer and nearer into success. She might not be at the top today but she will reach it someday if she continues working for the better. Her graduation from being lower middle classed to middle classed is just a first step. Continuing more steps, she will certainly reach the developed status within this century.
    Expectations - It has potentials to turn like China (in terms of manufacturing industry) or Thailand in tourism industry. They can have their own Shanghai, Hong Kong, etc. However, Indonesia is very big and has so many islands. I hope they can do it. I actually like that they do better than the Philippines as of the moment in despite of them having bigger population and more islands to manage. However, their growth rate is getting slower, I think they are also becoming a bit complacent like Thailand? or perhaps, some problems with their governance? Indonesians has 10% poverty rate. They are over 264 million. So they have 26.4 million people below the poverty line. That’s more than in the Philippines, however, their country is bigger so more scattered and less denser than the Philippines. Within this century, Indonesia has the potential to be like Japan or Korea. If they reach at least 6.5% growth and manage it consistently, then, it can be as early as 2040s or 2050s.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 1st in ASEAN, 7th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 5th in ASEAN, 97th in the World
    HDI - Medium, 115th in the World
    Infrastructure - 4th in ASEAN, 36th in the World
    GDP growth - 7th in ASEAN at 5.1%
  6. Philippines - it is a lower middle classed country today, but nearly approaching the middle classed status. Its GDP per capita today is 3500 USD. Four Thousand USD is the required GDP per capita to be classified as middle classed by per capita standards and Philippines has just a very few more to earn. During its transition today from lower middle classed to middle classed, it is predicted that by 2022, it can possibly graduate to middle classed classification. It is the most mismanaged country in South East Asia or even in the entire Asia. Both government officials and the people are to be blamed of great mismanagement. Government officials are not doing their job so great whilst the people are not disciplined enough to follow as well. Philippines is the country that is united outside but seems divided inside. But in despite of these, it has big potentials to be developed within this century, just like Indonesia. The infrastructures are decaying but in this late 2020s, they are all being repaired and more infrastructure projects are on-going. More foreign investors are also building their businesses in this country in despite of its 60/40 ownership rules. Service and IT industries (especially, business process outsourcing) are its richest trait. Many citizens are well educated, however, because of excessive brain drain, they work overseas. If more opportunities comes for them inside the country, then the country will develop faster. If the GDP growth of the Philippines becomes excessively higher and more consistent than Indonesia, Philippines can surpass Indonesia in the near future. Philippines is one of the fastest growing countries in South East Asia. So it has big potentials to be developed in the not so near yet not so far future.
    Expectations - Its cities (especially the New Clark City that is under construction), the Bonifacio Global City which is actually tagged as “Little Singapore”, Makati, Cebu, and Davao has potentials to be like Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, or Macau. BGC is a very modernly planned city by the way and it is the only one in South East Asia aside from Singapore. However BGC is a small city and New Clark City is set to be finished by 2030. New Clark City will be planned by the Japanese. Speaking about the provincial parts, it’s still a long way to go. Philippines is competing against Thailand and Indonesia in the tourism section. Philippines just really need improvement in its advertisements and marketing. Most vloggers prefer the natural beauty of the Philippines however, it lacks travel efficiency (due to infrastructure) and promotions by the government. Philippines has been doing great regarding its tourism industry these past few years, however, it still needs improvement, especially in infrastructure.
    For the whole country, it can lift its status up in the next years assuming it will maintain the growth but the GDP per capita will be facing difficulties to increase because of the 20% poverty rate (Filipinos are 104 million and 20 million are below the poverty line). Brain drain is also one of the reasons. Both Indonesia and Philippines are improving however their poverty populations are still high. If the present growth rate is maintained until around 2040s or 2050s, Philippines has the potential to be like Japan (most probably, since Filipinos consider it as their top role model), a giant Singapore (one of their role models too), or USA (because of historical or cultural stuff).
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 4th in ASEAN, 29th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 6th in ASEAN, 113th in the World
    HDI - High, 112th in the World
    Infrastructure - 6th in ASEAN, 56th in the World
    GDP growth - 5th in ASEAN at 6.7%
  7. Vietnam - it is a lower middle classed country today. It has a thriving manufacturing industry. Vietnam was very devastated in post WW2 wars, but it is still fascinating that it is growing so fast in despite of its recent damages. Vietnam is very strong and devouted in building its economy. They are being more competitive as the years pass by. Her competitiveness gives her a high potential to be developed within this century. Just like Philippines, it’s also transitioning from lower middle classed to middle classed but it has a longer way to go than the Philippines as of the moment. If its GDP growth becomes excessively higher and more consistent than the Philippines, Vietnam can surpass it in the near future.
    Expectation: It is playing a big role in manufacturing industry. It’s capital has the potential to turn like Shanghai. However, its capital still needs improvement to be at least be par with Metro Jakarta and Metro Manila (specifically, Makati, Ortigas, and BGC). For the manufacturing industry, it has the potential to be like China as well and be a competitor of Indonesia. It also has good tourism industry like Thailand. It has great potentials to be a big competitor of Thailand in tourism sector since they are also good in promoting their natural beauties. Within this century, they can be like South Korea or Singapore. But, if their fast growth is maintained or turned faster, they can reach it in 2040s or 2050s too.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 5th in ASEAN, 35th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 7th in ASEAN, 124th in the World
    HDI - Medium, 116th in the World
    Infrastructure - 5th in ASEAN, 55th in the World
    GDP growth - 3rd or 4th (par with Myanmar) in ASEAN at 6.8%
  8. Laos - it is a lower middle classed country today. I don’t know much about this country so I cannot tell too many opinion about it. A country might be quiet, influential, popular, or powerful, but it doesn’t matter. Just like a volcano, a quiet volcano can erupt so loudly. So we might not know. Laos has potentials too. Although today, its GDP per capita is far from being classified as middle classed, but it still has the potential to be considered as one in the near future. It has potentials to be developed within this century or if not, then by the next century. But again, just like a volcano, metaphorically speaking, it can erupt so loudly. Laos is the 2nd fasted growing economy in ASEAN. Laos can develop faster unexpectedly in despite of its very low metrics today. So it’s really hard to predict.
    Expectations: If they continue to maintain their growth until 2050s, they can be at least like Thailand today or possibly, even Malaysia.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 9th in ASEAN, 110th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 8th in ASEAN, 121st in the World
    HDI - Medium, 139th in the World
    Infrastructure - 9th in ASEAN, 98th in the World
    GDP growth - 2nd in ASEAN at 6.9%.
  9. Cambodia - it is a lower middle classed country. It has a thriving tourism industry. In medieval history, Cambodia had a very progressive kingdom. Just imagine, if they had managed to be progressive even in far history, then they can also do it anytime today or in future. Just like Laos, its GDP per capita is far from being classified as middle classed but it has potentials to be considered as one in the near future. Cambodia also has a very fast economical growth rate. It has potentials to be developed within this century or if not, then by the next century. Just like what I said about my opinion to Laos, methaphorically speaking, just like a volcano, it can suddenly erupt loudly from being quiet. Cambodia can develop faster unexpectedly in despite of its very low metrics today.
    Expectations: Cambodia’s tourism sector is really good. It’s becoming like Thailand in tourism approach. If continued, they can be like Thailand in a few decades.
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 8th in ASEAN, 104th in the World
    GDP per Capita - 10th in ASEAN, 141st in the World
    HDI - Medium, 146th in the World
    Infrastructure - 8th in ASEAN, 89th in the World
    GDP growth - 1st in ASEAN at 7.0%.
  10. Myanmar - it is a lower middle classed country. All I know is they were under military rule in the past and they are still transitioning into a democratic republic (correct me if I’m wrong). Just like Vietnam, although the case is not about war but about government leadership instead, it also faced a lot of difficulties recently. But in despite of this, Myanmar is rising, just like all the ASEAN countries. Just like Laos and Cambodia, its GDP per capita is also still far from being classified as middle classed but it has potentials to be considered as one in the near future. Overall, Myanmar has a very fast economical growth rate. The rest of my opinion regarding this country is just the same as what I’ve stated about Laos and Cambodia.
    Expectations: They seriously need to improve their governance. Otherwise, their growth rate will continue to fluctuate. Since they are one of the fastest growing economy today, it has the potential to turn like Thailand or Malaysia as well within this century. If the governance will be addressed, they can make their move better and might even enter the competition of the top 5 ASEAN nations (Singapore and Brunei excluded).
    GDP Total (Economy Size) - 7th in ASEAN, 53rd in the World
    GDP per Capita - 9th in ASEAN, 127th in the World
    HDI - Low, 148th in the World
    Infrastructure - 10th in ASEAN, No Ranking Info
    GDP growth - 3rd or 4th (par with Vietnam) in ASEAN at 6.8%.

SUMMARY:

Singapore is at Stage 3.
Malaysia is transitioning from Stage 2 to Stage 3
Thailand and Indonesia are at Stage 2
Philippines and Vietnam are transitioning from Stage 1 to Stage 2
Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are at Stage 1
(I did not include Brunei because I haven’t seen Brunei in the list of this so-called “Stage” metrics. Brunei however, has unquestionably well-doing citizens because of its per capita though I do not generalize it at all.

WARNING:

If you are going to comment why this is ranked like this or that, just don’t do it please. We all gather information from the internet and every website shows different rankings. This country might be ranked higher in this website than the other website, but they still almost have the same metrics. If you believe that the website that you saw has the real facts, then stick with it. I won’t forcefully impose the metrics that I got from different websites to your belief. If you believe your website of reference is better, stick with it. I don’t really 100% believe the websites that I used as a reference but for me, they still show at least the average results of their metrics. We don’t know the very exact details especially that different websites give different results but at least, they are all not very far from each other. They are still all related. And for me, this is how I put the average of their metrics based on the different websites I relied on. Good Vibes only please :)

END NOTES:

We are all humans here, South East Asians specifically. We are not being defined by the rankings of our country, so let’s get away from any uneducated stereotypes and teases. We compete to reach success and development, not to impose crab mentality. If a country is poorer, let’s support it and give hope, instead of teasing or bullying it. If a country is richer, let’s admire and still support it for its continuous progress.

I believe that if a country had managed to be progressive in the past, then it has no reason not to be progressive again in the future. For those that had not been progressive even in the past, you don’t have any ways to go but to aim higher and higher. When you are at the bottom, the only way for you is to get at the top. If you are at the top, it’s either you stay or you fall.

All ASEAN countries have big potentials. If European Union managed itself to be progressive, why can’t we? ASEAN is a very young regional association. We never started by having everything. But once we grow, we can have everything. There should not be an end to our growth. Humans die, but civilizations must not. Our ancestors left the world worse than we found it. We, together, shall leave the world a better place than we found it. If you are lucky to be born in a better place, then keep the world a better place.

Everyone has differences, everyone has similarities. Every countries has both positive and negative traits. We must respect each other. We, ASEANs, must work as a team in developing our countries and region. If others can do, what’s the reason we can’t?

Post Script: My highest bet are those from top 1 to top 7. Since Singapore is already developed and Brunei is somewhat developed, I’ll vote Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam (by rank) as countries with most/highest potentials, whilst Laos and Cambodia with moderate potentials, and Myanmar with the least potential as of “today”. This vote of mine is from my personal perspective alone and does not intend to offend anyone. This actually was just requested by a commentator, which is very insignificant for me, but I still put it anyways.

Development growth might change tomorrow, next week, next year, or next decade, we might now know. A quiet country can rise so loudly tomorrow and a loud country can fall so quietly tomorrow. Let’s all just appreciate the potentials of all these countries rather that betting for a winner. There’s no winner. They all have potentials. It’s just that a country has more this than the other but that still doesn’t make that country a winner. They both have it but not always at the same level. Something will always be higher but time changes and so are the statuses of these countries. Country A might have a better “a” but worse “b”. Country B might have a better “b” but worse “a”. In the end, they are just the same, both progressing countries in different ways.

There’s no loser countries here. All countries are winners because all of them have the potentials. If you are categorizing a country as loser, then you don’t deserve to be an ASEAN member. You are ignorant hands-off. We made ASEAN to unite, not to fight. ASEAN is not a loser, therefore it has no loser countries. We are here in this association to lift ourselves up, not to pull someone down just to feel better or higher. No country is more perfect. All countries are perfect in their own ways.

It’s good that ASEAN is improving and performing well but that’s just it. Let’s all be happy with all our developments. We all have our differences so our way of progressing is subjective. Life is like a wheel, sometimes we are on top, sometimes we are below. If you stop the wheel and stay at the top, that’s crab mentality. If you destroy the wheel, help to raise those at the bottom, and progress altogether, that’s humanity.

Cheers to everyone!

Proud South East Asian here.

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