Meh.
I think it's good. But also, not.
As a reminder, she was sentenced to:
- Four years of prison, including two of firm imprisonment.
- A 100,000 euros fine
- A 5-year ineligibility.
- A 2 million fine for her party.
So, it's good because she committed a crime and she's paying for it. That's how it's supposed to work.
But here are a few factors that I think mitigate this ruling and make it less of a good news:
- She will never see the inside of a cell
Because of course. We might not be the US, but the law only still applies to a certain extent to powerful people. Not only will she appeal to change the ruling, there will be arrangments, and in the end, she will not do prison time. She may not even pay that fine.
- She might still be candidate in 2027
What, you actually thought it would be that easy?
She is appealing the ruling, and while it won't take place before 2026, the decision might still be overturned or pushed back. Or she might go to the European court of human rights, which has the power to contest the ruling. Let me assure you that her party is considering every possible option to keep her on the ballot. And there are options.
- This might have handed over the presidency to her party
The eternal optimist that I am already believed a RN victory was inevitable in the forseeable future, whether in 2027, 2032 or 2037. I read here and there that unlike Americans, us Europeans know what it is to live under fascism and know not to ride this train again, and, guys… we don't. People who actually experienced fascism are dead or dying. And even if we did know, we've also caught this mental disease that makes us think whatever side we're on is the not-fascist side because obviously. And we can't spend decades tethering over the edge. At some point, we're gonna fall. I don't want that to happen. I won't vote for that to happen. My gut still tells me that it will.
Le Pen is similar to Trump, and her supporters are identical to his. Their belief is that their political leaders don't do anything wrong, ever. Or if they do, everyone does it, so why the targeted attacks? Or if not eeeeeeeeveryone does it, it's still pretty convenient that she gets this very sentence at this exact time where her chances to win were never higher, isn't iiiiit? They're already claiming that she's the victim of a political conspiracy, an attack on democracy and the like (there would be no such thing if her opponents were convicted, of course), and they'll spend the next two years claiming it, ignoring the fact that she herself claimed that any politician convicted like this should be ineligible for life. Rules for thee, blah blah blah. They're going to keep asserting this, and with enough confidence that this time, enough people might believe them. Whether she does come back on the ballot, or someone like Bardella or someone else takes her place, this sentencing is another argument in their favor. They're building up the same kind of arsenal Trump did, and we know how that turned out.
Yep, that sounds bleak. But with people like them, there are no good news.
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