I’ve spent too long considering the strategy here. What divisions would be moved in- what units would be deployed? I think this is a topic nobody can really shed light on because it varies based on the situation.
My best guess is that US forces in Europe would converge on Ukraine. There are about 60,000 US troops in Europe spread throughout the continent but focused in the East. Most of these guys and gals are support troops but many of them are combat-ready. Additionally, the US has a significant number of military aircraft and naval groups in Europe. These forces would be more than enough to defeat Russian forces in Ukraine. That said I suspect a large number of US carriers and perhaps a few Marine Divisions to get involved as well.
Understand that these US forces in Europe have been training for 1 purpose and only 1 purpose- fighting Russians. These guys are well-armed, well-trained, and specifically equipped to counter Russian forces. Russia has been struggling to fight irregular Ukrainian troops. Throw in some elite US support personnel, US Aircraft, and US infantry, and Russia would be doomed.
So what would happen?
Option 1: Russia retreats
Putin knows full well what US intervention means. Russia has failed miserably against Ukraine so you can guess how Russia would do against the very well-equipped, supplied, ad trained US military.
At full strength Russia is a paper tiger with no real teeth- now severely weakened Russia simply couldn’t even really put up much of a fight. This makes me think they will just back down right away.
I suspect if the US announces its intent to get involved Russia will make one last massive push for victory hoping to achieve some measure of success and force Ukraine into a negotiated peace. This will fail and Russian troops will abandon the front in a full retreat before US troops arrive.
This allows Putin to avoid the humiliation of a significant defeat to the US. Additionally, it saves Russia from facing significant and irreplaceable military losses to the US. Putin can claim Russia wasn’t beaten and make the US look like the bad guy to try and secure his position.
Option 2: Nuclear war
I do not think Putin would launch nuclear weapons. In fact, I am 100% sure he won’t. It would be murdering your wife because you cannot decide on where to go to dinner- it’s just too wonky.
If nukes were launched the US would respond and annihilate Russia from the face of the planet. Moreover, even loyal Russian allies or neutral countries like China and India would be firmly against Russia because of this. Such an action is so far over the line of acceptability it’s hard to even explain. Literally, every single nation on earth would universally oppose this action to a point where even if Russia survives they will have no future. It’s an unthinkably stupid decision and I don’t think Putin is a stupid man.
However, I do think there is a way that nuclear war can start. Putin could give nuclear weapons to his frontline generals and give them the authorization to use them at will. This means if a General is about to be overrun he will either have to use the nuke or risk it falling into enemy hands.
Putin may distribute nukes to his frontline troops if the US gets involved as a way to keep the US at bay. If US forces attack Russian troops will be overrun which may trigger the launch of at least a few nuclear weapons. Putin can sit back and claim “it wasn’t me” and blame the US for the entire thing.
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