He has waited too long with 2020 right around the corner. If Trump feels cornered and doomed by the impeachment inquiry, he may just do that, feeling he has nothing to lose. He will go down in a ball of flames taking as many casualties with him as possible. That’s his nature, he is a poor loser and will throw whoever doesn’t keep him afloat, under the bus. The EU, has not been a Trump ally or friend so for Trump, they are expendable on his way to US isolationism.
The China trade war has taken way too long and his ‘trade wars are easy to win’ has a hollow ring to it today. Navarro has been proved to be a false prophet and Trump is probably regretting the strategy to stop China’s rise was through trade. China has what they wanted, a long drawn out battle that helps to assure Trump doesn’t win in 2020 by letting the US economy suffer under Trump’s tariffs and bans.
Think about what has happened in the 18 months or so the trade war has lasted. The only concession agreed to by China is to buy more US goods, something they agreed to at the beginning. IP protection is already being done so it is not an issue for the Chinese, yet it is still to be negotiated. Opening China’s markets wider was done last year, but the US has not benefited as much as the Europeans and Asians. They have now almost a year headstart on the US. Trump’s attacks on Huawei and bans of US tech companies to supply China with ICs has only created the opposite effect. China has accelerated its rise in semiconductors and now is producing CPU/GPU and memory chips. It has also begun production of AI chips. Huawei has survived US attacks and says it can produce 5G base stations without US parts, that is an ominous fact that will cause the US to lose more and more in the technology sector. Japan and South Korea are also rising to fill the void. Taiwan has ramped up their foundries to support the switch. US attempts to stymy China’s ‘Made In China 2025’ has failed. The last issue has to do with China’s socialist government and its command economy. The US wants China to abandon its command economy. China will not. Why should China abandon what has created the China miracle in the last 40 years to climb from obscurity to second only to the US. On a PPP basis, China has already passed the US in PPP GDP.
While the US has wasted precious time and resources in both domestic and foreign polarization, China keeps headed upwards in their goal to continue its growth. We are destroying the very thing that we need to compete with the Chinese. We are turning away immigrants that make up the backbone of our tech industry. We are alienating that core of tech immigrants and they are starting to leave. We are going from a brain gain to a brain drain. Our domestic squabbling has focused on impeaching our POTUS instead of a plan to increase US economic growth. We have alienated allies, especially the Europeans to the point that they appear to be looking east and more condescending towards Russia. The Europeans look like they want an all-European military probably to replace NATO. The Germans are wanting US forces to leave. Trump has threatened Germany with sanctions because of their efforts to get gas from Russia. The EU is looking more and more like it is headed into a more independent course from depending on the US.
My opinion: Trump is heading the US into a dead end and decline that will take years to repair, if they can be repaired at all. All he has done is to make others realize that they need to look out for themselves and freeing themselves from depending on the US. The world is working towards working with each other and avoiding the US You will see the EU cooperating more with Russia and China in the future. The historic western ties are coming undone and we are seeing a world in change as each countries relooks at their own self-interests in regards to the US as the US looks only at itself. Without realizing it, the US is changing into an image of Trump’s characteristics of narcissism and self-aggrandizement, both will lead America to isolation.
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