This is an answer I wrote earlier, and I stand by it. Sure, it’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, but there you go.
I’m going to stick my neck out now.
I’m going to say that this will play out exactly as it did in 1917.
Within a few months, probably this year, the current leadership will somehow be made to step down over their complete failure and incompetence.
The next leadership will be one of hawks. They will try to double down on the war, since they have delusions of competence.
This will not make any difference whatsoever. The Russian state is impotent to wage a war; the incompetence runs too deep and nothing that can be done in less than a decade can fix this. Their hands are just as tied as Putin’s, by the lack of manpower and industrial base in Russia, Ukraine’s friends all over the world, and the conundrum posed by how any escalation will only lead to Russia losing faster.
Then, there will be a new October Revolution. A different faction will come to power, carried on the back of unrest in Russia. Like in 1917, they will win the day by promising an end to the war, no matter what the cost is. At this point, the Russian people will be so sick of the war that they will agree to just about anything.
The wildcard here is nuclear weapons. If the hawk faction uses them, they will lose the war so fast that maybe the war will end before their opposition has time to organise.
It’s just one guy’s guess. It’s a forecast worth exactly what you paid for it. But that’s what I guess will happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment