Yesterday I said that if Putin comes back from China with only the signed agreement for building a new gas pipeline, it would be a fiasco. I was wrong.
Putin failed to get even that agreement — despite all the excitement pumped up by the Russian propagandists, who talked about it as a “done deal.”
So, exports from Russia to China will increase through the export of Jerusalem artichoke and beef cartilage (that’s not a joke — that’s the products that China agreed to allow to be exported from Russia).
In addition, China has de-facto stopped buying Russian weapons (and so did India).
Gazprom's top managers, who were looking forward to stealing big bucks on the construction of the new gas pipeline line, are probably trying to drown their sorrows in Hennessy tonight.
In addition to its largest losses since 1999, Gazprom's production is now down to levels not seen since 1970s.
Last year, Putin met twice with Xi Jinping, trying to convince him to accept the gas pipeline project, which the Kremlin has been pushing for 7 years. The 3rd time wasn’t the charm either.
China has learned from Europe's mistakes and is now developing LPG terminals, unwilling to become tied to one supplier. Moreover, China needs the gas on the coast, where all the industry is located. With a new pipeline from Russia, it would need to be built through the whole territory of China, making it too costly for Beijing.
That’s why there is such a veiled wording from the joint document following the meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin:
“The parties will make efforts to advance work on studying and agreeing on a project for the construction of a new gas pipeline from Russia to China through the territory of Mongolia.”
Considering the eastern culture of florid speech, we can say that the Chinese in a peculiar way told Putin to buzz off.
And that’s in addition to the fact that the costs of building “The Power of Siberia-1” gas pipeline (carried by Russia) will never pay off.
Regarding the situation in Ukraine, Putin agreed to support the Chinese Peace plan, but it has an important point: China states they want the war in Ukraine to stop based on the principles of the UN charter and territorial integrity.
By the way, it’s Putin’s 17th visit to China. As soon as he got “inaugurated” for the 5th (de-facto 6th) term, Putin immediately rushed to his master — with all his entourage.
The gossip in Russian social networks is, Putin managed to get Xi’s agreement to send Russia a lot of munitions (through the North Korea), in exchange to big discounts on Russian minerals. If this were true, for Putin, the visit would be a success.
This is, by the way, what members of the Russian delegation say to journalists, “the trip to China was a big success” — despite nothing tangible to show. (Are they privy to Putin’s secret talks with Xi? I doubt it.)
Putin only cares for the war — and in the war, he only cares to outlast the West. (Putin no longer believes he can win on the battlefield).
For China, they care equally for the cheap minerals (it’s good for the Chinese economy), and for creating problems for the West.
On the international stage, China wants to be in the spotlight and prove that it is the only player who can come to an agreement with Putin and achieve a truce between Russia and Ukraine, as well as reconcile Russia with the West.
In relations with the West, Russia and China are playing a “bad cop — good cop” scenario, in which Russia (Putin) is the bad cop — a psycho with a nuclear bomb, and the good cop (China) is a bit of a pain in the butt. At the moment, it seems that both are winning, because the object of influence is pliable. But in fact, strategically, China benefits more: it retains access to Western markets and (partially) technologies, while making Russia increasingly dependent on China economically, technologically and culturally.
Over the course of decades, this may look like China using Russia as a battering ram and strengthening itself through the damage Russia inflicted on both the West and itself.
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