What contribution could East Timor make if it becomes a member of ASEAN?

Anton Taiki

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What contribution could East Timor make if it becomes a member of ASEAN, which is one of the poorest countries in the world, is plagued with corruption and mismanagement, and Myanmar's membership has already caused problems? A second basket case?

Myanmar's current status within ASEAN is in limbo. Relationship is strained and participation is negligible, with the country largely isolated from high-level ASEAN engagements due to the military junta's failure to adhere to the Five-Point Consensus put forward by the grouping.

ASEAN continues to grapple with how to address the crisis while maintaining its principles of consensus and non-interference. There is still no light at the end of the tunnel as long as the junta is not receptive to the implementation of ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus. As such embattled Myanmar is dead in the water.

Although the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping that aims to promote economic and security cooperation among its ten members, it has its set of priorities when admitting a new member country.

Timor-Leste is the latest country to join ASEAN; after the country applied for membership in 2011, the group granted it observer status in 2022, (and it is supposedly on track for full membership by 2025 or 2026). (Singapore is hesitant in Timor Leste joining while Indonesia is favourable to admitting the country as a member. Other members have a cautionary approach.)

Why ASEAN is dragging its feet to admit Timor Leste as a full member outright -

Current Status: Timor-Leste has been an observer in ASEAN since 2002. While ASEAN has acknowledged its aspirations, the process has been slow.

In recent years, there has been some progress, with ASEAN conducting assessments of Timor-Leste's readiness and expressing support for its eventual membership. However, full admission will likely depend on Timor-Leste addressing the concerns outlined below and demonstrating its ability to meet ASEAN's standards and obligations.

Economic Development Gap: Timor-Leste is one of the least developed countries in Southeast Asia, with a fragile economy heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues.

• ASEAN members are concerned that Timor-Leste's economic instability could strain the organization's resources and hinder regional economic integration efforts.
• ASEAN's focus on economic cooperation and integration, such as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), requires members to meet certain development benchmarks, which Timor-Leste may not yet fulfill.

Institutional Capacity: Timor-Leste's administrative and institutional capacity is still developing.

ASEAN members worry that it may struggle to meet the obligations of membership, such as implementing ASEAN agreements and participating in regional initiatives.

• The country's limited diplomatic and bureaucratic infrastructure could make it difficult to fully engage in ASEAN's decision-making processes.

Political and Security Concerns: Timor-Leste's political stability has been a concern since its independence in 2002. While it has made progress, some ASEAN members may still view its domestic politics as fragile, which could pose risks to regional stability.

• ASEAN operates on a consensus-based decision-making model, and the inclusion of a new member with differing priorities or unresolved internal issues could complicate regional cooperation.

ASEAN's Internal Dynamics: the group's decision-making process requires unanimous agreement among all member states.

• Some members may have bilateral concerns or geopolitical considerations that influence their stance on Timor-Leste's membership.
• The organization is also cautious about expanding too quickly, as rapid enlargement could dilute its cohesion and effectiveness.

Financial and Resource Implications: Full membership in ASEAN requires financial contributions to the organization's budget and participation in various initiatives.

• Timor-Leste's limited financial resources could make it challenging for the country to meet these obligations.
• Existing members may also be concerned about the additional burden of supporting Timor-Leste's integration into ASEAN's frameworks.

Geopolitical Considerations: Timor-Leste's strategic location and potential alignment with external powers could influence ASEAN members' perceptions.

• Some members may be cautious about how Timor-Leste's membership could affect the region's geopolitical balance, particularly in the context of major power rivalries.

What contributions could Timor Leste make as a full member?

ASEAN members have not got down to start counting the eggs yet, if there's any. The main problems of Timor Leste are monumental and they include the country's economy. It heavily relies on oil and gas exports, which makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices and raises concerns about long-term sustainability as reserves deplete.

Despite progress since gaining independence in 2002, poverty and unemployment remain major issues. Many citizens lack access to basic services, education, and healthcare.

The country has underdeveloped infrastructure, including transportation, energy, and communication systems, which hinders economic growth and development.

Timor-Leste has also experienced political tensions and governance challenges, which can disrupt development efforts and deter foreign investment.

It appears that the aspiring ‘member country’ has a lot more serious problems than it can handle. Would ASEAN really grant full admission when the time comes up to review? Or extend the observer status.

Who knows what the ‘new world’ will be like after ‘president tariff’ is finished with it in about four years time.