Wow, there are a lot of speculative what if's in the question. Before going into some other thoughts let me state that I believe that Ukraine will prevail, with or without the US, the Baltics will be protected by NATO regardless of Trump's actions or US involvement, and it is quite possible Poland could give Russia a run for it's money on it's own right now.
Having said that, there is a very strong possibility of The Ukraine War creating a new bi-polar world as Putin suggests, just not the one he expects. There is a very real possibility of an EU vs China polarity, in fact it already exists, it is just not yet precieved as being more dominant in influence then the US vs Russia/China.
I specifically do not use Russia alone, because Russia is no longer the main rival of the US, just the loudest. To be blunt, Russia has already fallen to the place of a 2nd tier nation. It is burning up the leftover influence and military strength of the Soviet Union to create more impact and damage then it's current capacity allows for, but both things are finite. When used up, Russia will be left permanently diminished, still a powerful nation, but not at the head of the table, not the leader. That is certain to get some troll response, but regardless of their hollering, it's true.
I used the word influence, not power, for a reason.. The US will certainly retain the top military strength for another decade, maybe two, and probably can remain an economic powerhouse indefinately if spending and budget issues are handled correctly. Power is not the problem. Influence comes from the wise use of, or often restraint in using, that power. Influence comes from investing in the resources of cash poor regions and sharing the resulting profits with that native populace, not taking it all. Influence comes from leading those with a collective, unified voice, making sure that those with a smaller part are still heard and protected. Most importantly, influence comes from engagement and from leadership.
Looping back to the question, we have already seen Western Europe making preparations to abandon the US, not when Ukraine falls, but when the US fails to lead in what they regard as a defining, existential crisis. They correctly believe that the result of the Ukraine war will define the balance of power in Europe for the next several decades. They are preparing (with some notable hiccups and anxiety)to prevent the possibility of Ukraine's fall without US involvement and to take over the roll of leadersip. They will abandon the US because of the declared intent not to engage and prevent the fall of Ukraine, they will not wait for that fall itself.
The US would still be there, still be at the table, be in the room…but no one would care. Sort of like this…
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