Monday, June 24, 2024

Is Donald Trump's guilty verdict going to help him win the election?

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It might energize his base. But I don’t think it’s necessarily good for him. If it was good, why would Trump’s supporters try and delay the other trials against him from proceeding? An article recently made this point. And I think it’s a good point.

 It’s kind of like him not taking the stand and testifying in his own defense — kind of telling. Surely an innocent man would shout off the rooftops that he’s innocent, and would like his moment in court to say as much?

The former President did reportedly want to testify in his New York trial.

 Only for his own legal council to strongly urge him NOT to. Looks to me like a whole lot of smart people around Mr. Trump want to delay trials, postpone them, if possible indefinitely. If there was gain in making the trials proceed, political gain, Trump would be all for it. People blabbing about the trial “helping Trump” are just whistling through the graveyard, so to speak. They’re trying to spin a bad story and trying to make it look good. Understandable, from a strategic perspective. But not awfully convincing.

In national polling averages, as of today, Biden has overtaken Trump in popularity.

 These are the results of polls all taken AFTER the verdict, mind you. Of course it is far too early to tell where things will be heading — a lot can happen in six months, after all. But so far, things aren’t looking overly rosy for the Republican one-time President. It’s impossible to count him out, he could still bring home the bacon. But it seems the verdict mostly just made people already likely to vote Trump more energized to do so. Whereas those who already have negative views of the guys will be confirmed in those beliefs.

If you’re someone who wasn’t going to vote for Trump, and the “guilty” verdict makes you vote for him? Chances are you would have voted for him, anyway. Don’t kid yourself. Trump is either “your guy” or just too unpalatable to consider. He’s a man you love, or hate. No in-betweens. All I’m seeing in response to the verdict, is a lot of mental gymnastics.

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